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Strategy·9 min read·June 15, 2024

The Search for the Fourth Offset

In competition, an offset is a means of compensating for an inherent disadvantage. In the defense industry, we call advantages offsets. America needs a fourth one.

By Remy Voisin

In competition, an offset is a means of compensating for an inherent disadvantage. Rather than meet an opponent in an unfavorable position, the great military strategist Sun Tzu would recommend changing the competition to either unwinnable or winnable at too great a cost.

Nobody loves a good competition more than Americans. That competitiveness is at the heart of the age-old conversation about American exceptionalism. But it's just an idea. The idea is that people can make their own choices about many things; from that idea, we can establish a country.


A Capability to Win

The current political, social, economic, and public health crises have made us less competitive. Pair these with the economic and military instruments represented in the rise of China, and we are entering an era where American dominance in crucial warfighting domains is eroding. Consequently, we must find new ways to sustain and expand our advantages with limited resources.

In the defense industry, we call advantages "offsets." These offsets have been defined by distinct periods of critical national security significance.

  • The First Offset expanded U.S. nuclear capabilities to counter Soviet nuclear weapon quantities.
  • The Second Offset was U.S. precision strike capabilities, fully displayed during the Gulf War.
  • The Third Offset, initiated by former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, is described as a suite of autonomous systems, miniaturization, big data, and advanced manufacturing systems.

These ideas signal a need for a Fourth Offset. For defense professionals looking for an advantage, I propose looking at the heart of the American identity and, even more deeply, at its competitive nature to find our way to overmatch.

So, how do we do that? Here's a sober idea: get back to the simple but effective practice of excellence in competition. To do that, we must return to the rigor instilled by the lessons learned from failure.

Aristotle is famous for his thoughts on excellence. The philosopher told us that "we are what we repeatedly do" and "excellence, then, is not an act but habit." Nearly 2,400 years ago, he described it as something that could be possible in all areas of your life if cultivated through virtuous habits.

Excellence in Competition — Examples

The U.S. Air Force wielded many of those offsets, and the service will tell you to use the third of its core values, Excellence In All We Do, as a guide. I submit that as a core value, it has driven its members to strive toward becoming the greatest Air Force on the planet. This core value, excellence in competition, has made our Air Force the world leader in stealth technology, force projection, and joint integration capabilities.

From the automotive industry, Ford Motor Company's commitment to progress and innovation propelled the company to be the first auto manufacturer to automate vehicle production with an assembly line, pay workers a fair wage, and get to a mass-market vehicle. That same competitive spirit drove remarkable engineering achievements decades later.

Another example can be found in Microsoft's story. In 1981, when IBM asked the 5-year-old company to produce an operating system for its personal computer, no one thought it would become the software company to power the world. Bill Gates and Paul Allen started their journey in software engineering at 13. For the next seven years, Gates would spend more time in computer labs than in class, working diligently to become a self-taught software wiz.

What the Air Force, Ford, and Microsoft teach us about excellence in competition is this: the capability to win and be successful is the product of years of practice forged in the furnaces of experience. Heated by the flames of competition and beaten by the hammer of failure, Americans have produced some of the most significant organizations and the most potent military capability in the world.

The Fourth Offset Lives in Our Identity

In our search for our Fourth Offset, I believe America has an advantage built directly into its identity. It is an advantage inextricably linked to its values, economics, and government.

Our drive to compete propels us to the great rewards in the capitalist economic system, and that same drive will lead us to an advantage regardless of where the challenge lies on the competition-conflict continuum.

Nobody is born excellent. As Aristotle said, it is a practice and something we must make habitual. Defense professionals need this competition to drive us. Only through competition can we find the motivation to make the necessary improvements to national security. I am a mediocre work in progress. Through rigorous effort, I have only momentarily moved away from being so.

"Life is only meaningful when striving for a goal." and "Through discipline comes freedom." — Aristotle